Polls polls and more polls

It is getting to be that time of year. So let's try to dive right in to it shall we?

Oregon Governor
Zogby has the Oregon Governor's race doing just what he had said. Closing hard and Kulongoski by 3%. By the way that is a fascinating chart for all the races.

Hibbits has a poll out today showing the race at 4%. Hibbits is tracking with Zogby. These two polls together seem to bolster our report last week that the race was a dead heat according to a Moore poll.

So while the liberals were crowing about their supposed double digit lead we calmly predicted that by the end of the month this would be a single digit race. Of course that is true and most of the Republican prognosticators were right. Who was wrong? Well folks like Torrid who for some reason just had to continue to hang on to the errant belief that somehow Kulongoski was striding toward a double digit victory. Sorry Torrid, don't mean to pick on you, but you are the one who said "it's just not a race at this point... But keep dreamin."

Oregon M48 (Rainy Day Amendment)
On the surface there was a pretty big difference here between the polling I have seen (mostly Rasmussen) and Hibbits' poll. Although reading a little deeper into the Hibbits poll we find that he is admitting that the voters still have not dialed in to the measures and that his numbers may be a little soft.

Hibbits is calling it 32 YES and 42 NO. That is almost upside down from other polling that I have seen. Albeit I have not seen any polling in the last month and half or so, so there could have been some movement I guess. Although then Hibbits throws a curve when he takes away the leanings.

Still based on the polling I have seen from two other polling firms over the summer this is a pretty big differential. Unlike the lefties I am not going to jump to the conclusion that Hibbits is bad and quickly go around looking for someone to tell me what I want to hear. No there is something going on here and we have dueling numbers, Hibbits, Rasmussen and McClaughlin. Hibbits being the one on the outside.

Hibbits really is a good pollster and actually usually conservative in his forecasting so I think that there are other numbers in the crosstabs that might give us a better indication as to why his numbers are so different. He gives us a hint when he admits that voters are not "dialed in" yet.

Oregon M45 (Term Limits)
This one ads to the curiosity. Hibbits is saying that this measure is polling 51% YES and 40% NO. This number is radically different than the polling I have seen from at least three different polling firms and does not jibe with the results of recent term limits issues that have been on ballots elsewhere. There has been a Rasmussen tracking poll that showed this measure at about 60% YES and below 30% NO. That poll had been pretty consistent even up to last week. The Rasmussen poll also was in line with a McClaughlin poll that was saying the same thing about 5 weeks ago.

What has changed in the last several months? Heck in the last week?

As I have said before, Hibbits is a pretty reliable pollster. So his numbers, if I were running the campaign, would cause me to sit up and take a second look at things. However if I tie in all the other polling information that I have. Tie in the fact that the opposition has been stuck in neutral on fundraising and organization. Tie in the customary support, even up to last month in Kansas City, TLs gets at the polls... All together and I have to wonder what was going on in the Hibbits poll this time around. It could be that he just caught this one on the outsides of his margin for error. Hey that happens and is why they always make sure to clarify that there is a margin of error.

Finally I look at Hibbits' statement "voters still have not dialed in" to these measures. It is as if he has seen something that caused him to question and he wanted to be perfectly clear these numbers are not "solid" numbers.

Washington Senate (McGavick v Cantwell)
Again we get to point to the error of the liberal spin meisters. Remember how they were crowing that Cantwell (Democrat) had put McGavick (Republican) to bed here in Washington? Yet I mentioned in the comments here on this blog that the Cantwell bump was merely an anomaly and that the race was a single digit nail biter.

The Zogby Battleground poll is calling the Washington Senate race a 50% (Cantwell) and 43% (McGavick) a 7 point race. Rasmussen recently said it was a 48 to 42 race. What Zogby is overlooking are Cantwell's huge negatives. This seat is still much closer than the Democrats would like.

National Scene
Nationally the Republicans are, as we said here a couple of weeks ago, turning the tide. We are, admittedly, behind in some races, however I like our chances of overcoming most if not all of those deficits.

In PA Santorum looks like he is in trouble (46% to 40%). However one of the reasons he is in trouble is because conservatives there are grumbling that he supported Arlen Specter in the primary a few years ago over the conservative running against him. Those Republicans that are grumbling will come back. In the end they know that Rick Santorum is a solid Republican and they will come home. Also... Bob Casey Jr. is a notoriously bad closer.

DeWine in Ohio is also hot on the heels of Brown with a HUGE amount of undecideds. Incumbent DeWine should hold that seat.

We also see from Zogby that Tennessee is trending towards the Republican and away from Democrat Ford. So there goes another seat that the Democrats were counting on.

What Zogby is not showing is Montana. Montana is another seat the Democrats were hoping to pick up but that is just not happening.

So what we have are two seats that have moved back into the Republican column. We have a seat (Washington) in which the Republicans seem to be putting into play and the Democrats will have to fight HARD to keep it. And we have two other seats in which the Republicans are behind yet the internal circumstances work in favor of the Republicans.

Conclusion
The conclusion is that the Republicans hold the Senate... Heck they may even pick up a seat.

Saxton has Kulongoski on the run and the taxes issue is working.

McGavick is hot on the heels of Cantwell and Cantwell is a notoriously bad campaigner.

Oregon conservatives have their work cut out for them on the ballot measures. Now is not the time to go to sleep.


Yip Yip